Walking Diary

By Hsu Shen On


January 2020 · 2 minute read

I would not call myself a lucky person. I have never won any lottery. In Chinese New Year, whenever I had played the card game 21, I had lost most of the time. Any game involving luck, I am just not very good at it. So I avoid it, I do not gamble, even a small amount for fun. Luck does not seem to be on my side.

Saying that in any game which involves luck there is a mathematical probability that you should win at some point, that is if you play long enough. Of course, the gambling rule is the house always wins. If you play long enough, in general, you might win some but you will lose most of the time. The exception is, if you are a really lucky person, then the probability changes.

One of my friends religiously plays a lottery game, called ‘Pick 4’. The idea is simple, you buy a ticket which is valid for the day, you pick 4 numbers. Everyday day, 4 numbers are generated in the lottery system. If all numbers match and in that order you win the big price, if not in the order you win lesser but still a decent amount.

So he has been playing every day the same set of numbers for over a year. Logic(probability) would say, that series of numbers will come up at some point. Now we were spending the afternoon together, a phone call comes up and my friend gets a call from another of his friend who knows his habit with the lottery. He says your number has come up, the friend checks the website and yes those numbers have won.

Instead of joy, he starts cursing. Guess what he did not buy a lottery ticket today! He has spent a year with it, and the day he does not buy, that number shows up. Luck, sometimes you just don’t have it.

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